Following on from statistics revealing an unusually warm UK winter (see previous story here), the Met Office has released its global forecast for spring 2007. Predictions for the entire year – published in January – appear to be coming true.

The potential for a record 2007 arises partly from a moderate-strength El Niño already established in the Pacific, which is expected to persist through the first few months of 2007.

Global temperature for 2007 is expected to be 0.54 °C above the long-term (1961-1990) average of 14.0 °C; There is a 60% probability that 2007 will be as warm or warmer than the current warmest year (1998 was 0.52 °C above the long-term 1961-1990 average).

The UK/Europe forecast for spring 2007 – defined as the months of March, April and May – estimates a 70% probability that the mean spring season temperatures will be above the long-term average over most of western Europe, including the UK.

For the whole of the UK, 2006 was the warmest year on record with a mean temperature of 9.7 °C, 1.1 °C above the long-term average. Ranked warmest years in the series going back to 1914 are:

1) 2006: 9.73 °C
2) 2003: 9.51 °C
3) 2004: 9.48 °C
4) 2002: 9.48 °C
5) 2005: 9.46 °C